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The Screen · Industrials · Metal Fabrication
Commercial Metals Company
CMC · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $7.2B · 12,690 employees
Commercial Metals Company manufactures, recycles, and fabricates steel and metal products, and related materials and services in the United States, Poland, China, and internationally.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price65.00 USD
Fair value70.83
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown65.00+0.0% to today
2026-07-25Read Distribution66.41-2.1% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup69.20-6.1% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Commercial Metals Company holds its Markdown at $65.00. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 36 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-22
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 36 days
Price at the screen
$65.00
Valuation
12.29 trailing · 8.91 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.52
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.88%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
31.30%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 31.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Commercial Metals clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 19%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-22 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 9.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +23% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-22 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Steel Maker's Low Multiple Masks Cyclical Trap
Picture a steel beam that looks solid until the building cycle turns. Commercial Metals sits right in that spot, with revenue up 23 percent and a forward multiple of just 9.3 times. Those figures draw attention, yet the business makes and recycles steel across North America and Europe, where demand swings hard with construction and infrastructure spending. Our fair value sits only 4 percent above the current price, leaving no real margin and an opportunity rating of none.
The numbers show a profit margin of 7 percent and return on equity of 14 percent, with analysts clustered around a higher target. Ethical checks clear without issue. Still, the low multiple in this sector often flags peak earnings rather than a bargain, and the unknown competitive moat adds another layer of uncertainty when orders slow.
Risk sits in the cycle itself. A slowdown in building or infrastructure projects can cut volumes fast, turning what looks like cheap steel into expensive inventory and pressure on margins. The modest valuation gap does little to offset that exposure. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CMC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$65.00-11.8%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78.
2026-08-25Distribution$73.69+11.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 11.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78.
2026-07-18Markup$69.20+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78.
2026-07-03Markup$69.20+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$69.20Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
