Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price60.07 USD
Fair value58.51
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Distribution138.09-56.5% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Mueller Industries Inc holds its Distribution at $60.07. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$60.07
Valuation
15.64 trailing · 13.71 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.11
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.74%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.61%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
49.36%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 49.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.98%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 2.6% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Pipes and Sheets Hide a Cyclical Trap
Picture a contractor ordering copper pipes for a new housing estate. Mueller makes those pipes and the brass fittings that go with them, along with aluminium parts for air-conditioning units. Demand rises and falls with construction cycles, yet the shares trade on a forward multiple of just 13.5 times while margins sit at 19 percent and return on equity reaches 28 percent.
Those numbers look attractive at first glance, yet the business carries only a narrow moat and operates in a sector where earnings peak just before multiples compress. With revenue up 19 percent recently, the current price of 59 dollars sits above our fair value of 55.88 dollars, leaving no margin of safety and an opportunity rating of none despite the ethical screen clearing cleanly.
The real risk lies in treating a low multiple as a bargain when earnings are near their cyclical high. Two analysts may carry a strong-buy consensus and a 75-dollar median target, but history shows metal fabricators can see profits halve when building activity slows. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MLI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-05Distribution$62.07-6.6%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $149.
2026-08-05Distribution$66.49-51.9%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 51.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $149.
2026-07-18Distribution$138.09+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 71%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $149.
2026-07-03Distribution$138.09+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$138.09Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
