NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,417−0.18%BTC$81,133−0.12%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC · 20 Sep
The Screen · Industrials · Metal Fabrication
Carpenter Technology Corp
CRS · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $20.2B · 4,500 employees
Carpenter Technology Corporation engages in the manufacture, fabrication, and distribution of specialty metals in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Mexico, Canada, and internationally.
Not yet scored
406.71 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-17
Screened 2026-09-17 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 20 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 406.71 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 374.09, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical screen not yet scored
Price406.71 USD
Fair value374.09
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-25Read Distribution535.57-24.1% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation561.49-27.6% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Carpenter Technology Corp holds its Markdown at $406.71. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 22 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-17
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 22 days
Price at the screen
$406.71
Valuation
38.73 trailing · 25.61 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
1.26
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
20.17%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 20.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
25.55%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 25.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-17 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 8.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +51% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-17 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Metals maker priced far above its worth
Think of an aerospace parts supplier riding a strong cycle, with engines and implants needing its alloys. Carpenter Technology shows solid 12 percent revenue growth, 16 percent profit margins and 25 percent ROE, yet trades at 43 times forward earnings with our fair value sitting 32 percent below the current price.
We pass for clear reasons. The narrow moat sits inside a cyclical industry where earnings peaks often prove fleeting, and paying such a premium leaves no margin of safety even after an ethical screen pass.
Analyst targets sit higher still, but that consensus ignores how quickly metal demand can drop when cycles turn. The setup looks like a classic value trap dressed up as growth.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CRS trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 44% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 113%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $470.
2026-07-25Accumulation$557.77-0.7%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 44% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 113%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $470.
2026-07-18Accumulation$561.49+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 44% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 113%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $470.
2026-07-03Accumulation$561.49+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$561.49Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
