Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price12.37 USD
Fair value11.18
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-31Read Markup14.51-14.7% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution12.80-3.4% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
GPGI, Inc. holds its Distribution at $12.37. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 58 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 58 days
Price at the screen
$12.37
Valuation
N/A trailing · 9.83 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.88
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.16%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
4.12%
Below 5%
Only 4.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 9.6% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Metal Cards Mask a Classic Cyclical Trap
Picture a workshop stamping out premium metal cards and injection molds that only sell when factories are spending. GPGI sits on a forward multiple of 11.3 times yet delivers zero profit margins and a return on equity of minus 26 percent. We pass because the low multiple does not signal value, it flags an industry at peak demand where earnings are likely to fall.
The business mixes sustainable molding equipment with its CompoSecure metal card line, both exposed to industrial cycles. Two analysts see a $20 target but offer no consensus rating, and the shares already sit 5 percent above our fair value. An ethical pass changes nothing when the core numbers show no durable profit engine.
Low multiples in metal fabrication often mark the top of the cycle, not a bargain. Currency swings, weak demand and thin margins can compress earnings fast from here. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GPGI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-31Markup$13.55-6.6%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-07-31Markup · changed$14.51+13.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-07-18Distribution$12.80+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-07-03Distribution$12.80+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$12.80Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.