Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price189.16 USD
Fair value156.93
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Markup198.48-4.7% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
ATI Inc holds its Markdown at $189.16. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$189.16
Valuation
53.85 trailing · 28.82 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.01
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.30%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 34.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
21.63%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 21.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.26%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 17.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +37% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Titanium supplier priced for perfection it lacks
Picture a forge turning out titanium parts for jets and turbines. Demand looks solid until the next downturn in aerospace or energy hits and orders vanish. ATI sits in exactly that spot, yet the shares trade at 34 times forward earnings with revenue barely growing and a 31 percent premium to our fair value.
The numbers do not justify the price. Narrow moat, single-digit margins and low single-digit growth leave little room for error, even with a respectable 23 percent return on equity. Analysts may be upbeat, yet the valuation already prices in flawless execution that a cyclical metal fabricator rarely delivers.
The real danger is the classic trap. Peak cycle earnings often arrive with high multiples that later compress when volumes fall. Ethical screen cleared, but the price leaves no margin for the swings this industry is built on.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ATI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-22Markup$227.22+22.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 22.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 49% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 125%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182.
2026-07-22Markup$186.17-6.2%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 6.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 49% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 125%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182.
2026-07-18Markup$198.48+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 49% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 125%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $182.
2026-07-03Markup$198.48+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$198.48Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
