Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.47, read 2026-11-08
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price39.64 USD
Fair value42.02
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Distribution43.60-9.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 23% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-13Read Markdown56.42-29.7% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown
2026-10-02Read Accumulation58.12-31.8% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 47% rise in 5 weeks
2026-08-25Read Markup39.48+0.4% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 15% rise in 8 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Calumet, Inc. holds its Distribution at $39.64. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$39.64
Valuation
N/A trailing · 13.62 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.69
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
91.45%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 91.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Calumet,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 91% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 6% discount to our $42.02 fair value, 40.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 5.7% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $42.02, with a range of $36.00 to $48.32, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Calumet cycles hit hard when margins vanish
Picture a refinery worker watching crude swing from boom to bust every few years. Calumet sits in exactly that spot, making specialty chemicals and renewable fuels where demand lurches with energy prices and industrial orders. The business shows just 4% revenue growth and a negative 5% profit margin, yet the shares sit at 42.83 dollars against a fair value near 21 dollars. That gap alone rules it out.
Forward earnings trade on a 102 times multiple while the company still loses money. In a cyclical sector this combination usually signals peak conditions rather than a bargain. Analysts may rate it a buy with a 36 dollar median target, but those figures sit well below the current price and do nothing to offset the unknown competitive edge or thin growth.
Ethical checks clear, yet the valuation leaves no margin of safety and exposes holders to sharp swings in raw material costs and end markets. The setup looks more like a trap than an opening.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CLMT trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-06Distribution$43.35-0.6%Entry 17
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Markdown$47.33-4.7%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markdown$49.65+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markdown$49.65+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markdown$49.65+2.3%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markdown$48.53+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markdown$48.53-7.7%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$52.59-9.7%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. Since the last review it entered the Titan Ethical 500; its composite score rose.
2026-10-20Markdown$58.24+3.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 70% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 150%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
