An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Hawkins, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $144.41
Hawkins, Inc. holds its Distribution at $144.41.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days
Price
$144.41
Valuation
36.93 trailing · 26.77 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 98.9
Beta
0.78
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads OVERVALUED — it trades above our $114.79 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat.
Read at
$144.41
36.93 P/E · 26.77 fwd
Our fair value
$114.79
21% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$184.00
+27% to current
Target low $170.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $200.00
▲ current $144.41 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$144.41
you are here
Conservative
$114.79
-21%
Analyst avg
$184.00
+27%
Our fair value
$114.79
-21%
Analyst high
$200.00
+38%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
-1.60%
Profit margin
7.53%
Debt to equity
42.30
Analyst consensus
None · 4 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 2.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Water chemicals trade at a steep premium
Picture the quiet supply chain that keeps swimming pools clear and factories running. Hawkins sits in that flow, selling treatment chemicals across water, industrial and nutrition segments. Yet the shares sit 20% above our fair value at $144.41, with revenue already falling 2% and a forward multiple of 26.8 times earnings. Moderate moat and a clean ethical screen do not change the arithmetic.
The business earns a respectable 16% return on equity and an 8% profit margin, but those returns arrive in a sector prone to sharp cycles. When demand for specialty chemicals slows, earnings can drop fast while the high multiple stays pinned to peak profits. Analyst targets sit higher, yet our numbers flag clear overvaluation rather than hidden value.
Cyclical businesses often look reasonable on past margins only to trap investors when volumes turn. Here the price already prices in optimism the recent revenue trend does not support. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
HWKN trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $189. Entered 2026-08-01 · Distribution
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $189.
2026-07-18Markdown$155.07+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $189.
2026-07-03Markdown$155.07+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (99). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$155.07Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (99). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
