Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.63, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price49.61 USD
Fair value54.89
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-17Read Markdown50.89-2.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-16Read Distribution50.89-2.5% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 12% slide in 2 weeks
2026-08-30Read Markup58.05-14.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-07-30Read Distribution56.96-12.9% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 10% slide in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
H.B. Fuller Company holds its Accumulation at $49.61. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 35 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 35 days
Price at the screen
$49.61
Valuation
14.09 trailing · 9.76 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.99
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.06%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.07%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.96%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.14%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
H.B. Fuller's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 40% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when FUL's ethical verdict changes
Today FUL does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 10.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +33% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Glue maker looks cheap but cycles often trap
Walk into any factory making packaging or cars and the adhesives from H.B. Fuller are probably holding things together. Yet the business sits squarely in a cyclical corner of chemicals where demand rises and falls with construction and manufacturing cycles. A forward multiple of 10.7 times flatters the numbers only if current earnings mark the peak rather than the norm.
Revenue is growing at 6 percent with thin 5 percent margins and 9 percent return on equity. Those figures already show limited pricing power. The ethical screen clears the company, yet the low multiple here signals caution rather than value because earnings in this sector tend to collapse faster than investors expect when volumes turn.
The real exposure sits with economic slowdowns that hit volumes first and leave fixed costs stranded. Unknown competitive protection adds another layer of uncertainty. Even strong analyst targets cannot change the structural pattern of peak-cycle multiples looking attractive right before they are not. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FUL trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-23Markdown$50.57+0.3%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $70. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-16Markdown$50.44+2.1%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $70. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markdown$49.41-2.9%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $70. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-09-21Markdown$50.89+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $70. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-19Markdown$50.89+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $70. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-18Markdown$50.89+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $70. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-17Markdown · changed$50.89+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $70. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $70. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-30Markup · changed$58.05+1.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $70.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 10.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $70.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
