An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Ingevity Corporation manufactures and sells activated carbon products, derivative specialty chemicals, and engineered polymers in North America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and South America.
VERDICT
The label
Markdown
read at $77.82
Ingevity Corporation holds its Markdown at $77.82.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markdown label
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-07
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 118 days
Price
$77.82
Valuation
109.61 trailing · 12.94 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.18
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$77.82
109.61 P/E · 12.94 fwd
Our fair value
$70.41
10% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$90.00
+16% to current
Target low $85.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $92.00
▲ current $77.82 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$77.82
you are here
Conservative
$70.41
-10%
Analyst avg
$90.00
+16%
Our fair value
$70.41
-10%
Analyst high
$92.00
+18%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
-5.20%
Profit margin
4.65%
Debt to equity
2,636.03
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 3 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 75.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 12.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Chemicals look cheap until the cycle turns
Picture a plant running flat out one quarter and idling the next. Orders for activated carbon and specialty additives swing with auto builds and oilfield work. Ingevity sits right in that swing. Revenue edges up only 4 percent while the firm posts an 11 percent loss and negative 114 percent return on equity. The 12.9 times forward earnings multiple looks low, yet peak-cycle earnings often produce exactly this picture. We pass.
The market prices the shares above our fair value and the three analysts who still cover it offer no consensus. Ethical checks clear, but that does not change the arithmetic. In a cyclical business a depressed multiple is usually a warning, not a bargain.
Margins can stay negative for longer than investors expect when end markets stay soft. Currency moves and raw-material spikes add further pressure. No moat rating changes the outlook. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
NGVT trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $86. Entered 2026-08-06 · Accumulation
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-07-18Distribution$71.98+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-07-03Distribution$71.98+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$71.98Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
