Screened 2026-08-27 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Innospec Inc. holds its Accumulation at $95.34. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 268 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-27
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 268 days
Price at the screen
$95.34
Valuation
19.46 trailing · 15.50 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.91
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
2.88%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 2.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
34.64%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 34.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.52%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 20.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +5% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cyclical Chemicals Name Offers No Margin of Safety
Every time oil prices move, demand for fuel additives and oilfield services moves with them. Innospec sits squarely in that chain, yet its revenue is growing at just 3 percent, profit margins sit at 6 percent and return on equity is only 9 percent. The shares trade at $84.25 against our fair value of $75.69, so the stock already prices in more optimism than the numbers support.
The forward multiple of 13.9 times looks modest on the surface. In a cyclical business that is exactly the warning sign, not the bargain. Peak-cycle earnings often compress once volumes turn, and an unknown moat gives no protection when the next downturn arrives. Analyst targets at $100 ignore that pattern.
Ethical screens clear the company, yet the combination of thin growth, limited returns and full valuation leaves no opportunity here. The low multiple simply reflects the risks of the cycle rather than any durable edge.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
IOSP trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-02Accumulation$95.34+13.2%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 13.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%.
2026-07-18Markup$86.59+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%.
2026-07-03Markup$86.59+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$86.59Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
