Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.00, read 2026-10-23
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price9.79 USD
Fair value11.42
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Markdown10.08-2.9% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-11Read Accumulation10.37-5.6% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation while volume is distributing
2026-10-02Read Markdown10.39-5.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-27Read Distribution9.93-1.4% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 24% slide in 8 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ecovyst Inc. holds its Markdown at $9.79. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 48 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 48 days
Price at the screen
$9.79
Valuation
42.65 trailing · 11.28 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.06
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.16%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 34.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.40%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Ecovyst's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 34% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when ECVT's ethical verdict changes
Today ECVT does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 16.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +58% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Sulfuric acid still powers the world's refineries
Every time a refinery blends high-octane fuel or a mine treats its wastewater, virgin and regenerated sulfuric acid moves through dedicated logistics that few competitors handle end to end. Ecovyst shows 50% revenue growth yet posts an 8% negative profit margin and just 3% return on equity, so the headline expansion has not reached the bottom line.
We pass. The shares trade above our $11.72 fair value at a 14.6 times forward multiple while the industry remains deeply cyclical. Low returns and negative margins already signal that current earnings are unlikely to mark a sustainable peak, turning the modest multiple into a warning rather than a bargain.
Currency swings, feedstock costs and refinery utilisation can swing results sharply from one quarter to the next, and any recovery in margins may prove fleeting. The ethical screen clears, yet the numbers still give no margin of safety. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ECVT trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Markdown$9.81-2.7%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-10-18Markdown · changed$10.08-2.8%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $16.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$10.39+4.6%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $16.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 23.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-27Markup$12.89-1.5%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-18Markup$13.09+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-03Markup$13.09+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$13.09Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
