Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.11, read 2026-10-31
Ethical passes the values gate
Price4.60 USD
Fair value6.21
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Distribution5.18-11.2% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-11Read Markdown5.17-11.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-10-02Read Distribution5.17-11.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 26% rise in 6 weeks
2026-08-24Read Markup4.09+12.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after an 11% rise in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
B2Gold Corp. holds its Distribution at $4.60. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 16 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 16 days
Price at the screen
$4.60
Valuation
9.45 trailing · 5.53 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.41
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
10.18%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 10.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.08%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.46%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.41%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
B2Gold clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 10%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-31. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today BTG passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +52% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold Miners Flash Cheap Numbers in a Trap
Picture a miner boasting record output while the gold price sits near highs. B2Gold shows revenue up 118 percent, a 15 percent profit margin and 17 percent ROE, all at a forward multiple of just 3.4 times. On paper the valuation sits well below our fair value of 4.95 against the current 3.67 price. Yet the opportunity rating stays at none because this is a classic cyclical setup where peak earnings often coincide with the lowest multiples.
We pass because the numbers reflect a temporary gold-price tailwind rather than durable advantage. An unknown moat, operations spread across Mali, Namibia and the Philippines, and no clear edge over larger producers all point to earnings that can fall as quickly as they rose. Analyst targets around 6 dollars ignore how quickly margins compress once the metal price turns.
Risk sits in the cyclical value trap itself. Revenue growth at this pace rarely repeats, and any drop in gold or a spike in local costs would crush the apparent bargain. Ethical screen passes cleanly, yet the business remains exposed to commodity swings and jurisdiction noise that no low multiple can fully offset. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BTG trades on NYSE American (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Distribution$5.20+0.4%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-10-18Distribution · changed$5.18+0.2%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$5.17+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 26.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-08-24Markup · changed$4.09+11.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 11.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-18Markup$4.21+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-03Markup$4.21+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$4.21Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
