Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 3.67, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price5.52 USD
Fair value6.30
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Accumulation5.23+5.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 9% slide in 9 weeks
2026-08-21Read Markdown5.74-3.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-07-21Read Distribution5.84-5.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-07-02Read Markdown5.94-7.1% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. holds its Accumulation at $5.52. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 65 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 65 days
Price at the screen
$5.52
Valuation
23.50 trailing · 13.85 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.94
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
46.21%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 46.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.02%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.84%
Below 5%
Only 1.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Algonquin Power & Utilities's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 46% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 12% discount to our $6.30 fair value, 3.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 12.4% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $6.30, with a range of $5.17 to $7.63, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Canadian Utilities Offer Stability But Little Edge
Picture flipping a switch in Ontario and knowing the power flows through a regulated mix of electricity, water and gas assets. Algonquin delivers exactly that, yet the numbers show modest growth at fourteen percent revenue and a seven percent profit margin that fails to lift returns above three percent on equity.
We pass because the business clears the ethical screen yet carries an opportunity rating of none. The forward multiple sits at fourteen point six times while analysts hold a seven dollar target, leaving an eleven percent margin of safety that does not compensate for the thin returns and unknown competitive position.
Low return on equity points to limited pricing power inside regulated markets, and any shift in interest rates or allowed returns can compress earnings quickly. The stock looks steady on paper but offers no clear advantage over simpler alternatives. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AQN trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-02Accumulation$5.46+4.4%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-10-19Markdown$5.20+1.8%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-10-12Markdown$5.11+1.6%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-10-02Markdown$5.03-5.3%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-09-21Markdown$5.31-7.5%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-08-21Markdown · changed$5.74-1.7%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-21Distribution · changed$5.84-1.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-18Markdown$5.94+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-17Markdown$5.94+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
