Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price36.10 USD
Fair value32.80
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-22Read Markdown38.73-6.8% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation42.43-14.9% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Avista Corporation holds its Markdown at $36.10. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$36.10
Valuation
13.03 trailing · 12.95 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.23
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
39.31%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 39.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.77%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.86%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.61%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 9.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Utility Lights Stay On But Numbers Show No Edge
Every time a home in Spokane flips a switch or a business in Alaska turns up the heat, Avista delivers the power and gas. Yet the business is shrinking, with revenue down 8 percent and a modest 11 percent profit margin that leaves little room for surprises. At a forward multiple of 15 times and return on equity of just 8 percent, the shares sit right at our fair value with a negative margin of safety, so the opportunity rating stays at none.
The ethical screen clears without issue and the consensus hold rating from six analysts lines up with a median target near the current price. This is a plain regulated utility whose cash flows are steady but uninspiring, offering no real edge once growth and returns are weighed against the price.
Interest rate moves and regulatory resets remain the main threats, both of which can squeeze allowed returns without warning. Peak earnings here are not the issue, yet the low multiple still fails to signal value when growth has already turned negative. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AVA trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-22Markdown · changed$38.73-7.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-22Accumulation$41.80-1.5%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-18Accumulation$42.43+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-03Accumulation$42.43+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$42.43Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
