2026-10-25
American Public Education, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 20:03 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services
American Public Education, Inc.
APEI · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $894M · 2,360 employees
American Public Education, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and campus-based postsecondary education services in the United States.
Not yet scored38.22 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price38.22 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Our regime readMarkdown, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 1.21)
- Last reviewed5 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $56.40 to $84.82, base estimate $69.10 (screen dated 2026-11-05).
- Trend Markdown
- Insiders insiders sold, $59,899, latest filing 2026-10-22
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 1.21, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price38.22 USD
Fair value69.10
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-06Read Markdown38.22+0.0% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 2 days
2026-11-04Read Distribution42.33-9.7% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after an 8% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-11Read Accumulation46.22-17.3% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-21Read Markdown44.32-13.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markdown label.
American Public Education, Inc. holds its Markdown at $38.22. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days.
| Phase | Markdown · caution |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days |
| Price at the screen | $38.22 |
| Valuation | 19.70 trailing · 12.99 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 1.41 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 31.25% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 31.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 45.98% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 46.0% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
American Public Education, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
American Public Education, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 31%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 39% discount to our $69.10 fair value, 5.50% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 44.7% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets. The average target sits +65% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $69.10, with a range of $56.40 to $84.82, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsWhy it stands out
A 6%-growth business trading at just 13.0x forward earnings, with minimal debt. That is a 39% discount to our $69.10 fair value: the market is pricing it cautiously while the fundamentals argue otherwise.
| Forward P/E | 13.0xexpensive even after accounting for its growth |
| Trailing P/E | 19.7xreasonably valued |
| EPS, trailing | 2.48 |
| EPS, forward | 3.76 |
| Revenue growth | +5.5%slow but positive growth |
| Profit margin | 6.8%thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 15.6%a solid return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 5.71% |
| Debt to equity | 0.49minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 3.25comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 1.41moves a little more than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.14% |
| 52-week range | 30.20 - 61.59 |
| Market cap | $894M |
| Employees | 2,360 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeAPEI trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-06
Markdown · changed $38.22
-9.9% Entry 17
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 105%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $62. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-05
Distribution $42.41
+0.2% Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 105%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $62. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04
Distribution · changed $42.33
+4.3% Entry 15
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 105%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $62. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03
Accumulation $40.57
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 105%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $62. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02
Accumulation $40.57
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 105%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $62. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01
Accumulation $40.57
-17.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 17.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 105%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $62. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-25
Accumulation $48.86
-0.5% Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 105%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $62.
2026-10-18
Accumulation $49.13
+6.3% Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 105%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $62.
2026-10-11
Accumulation · changed $46.22
+6.4% Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 105%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $62.
2026-10-02
Markdown $43.43
-2.0% Entry 8
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 105%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $62.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
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Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Kenigsberg James | Chief Innov., Tech Officer | S - Sale | 1,256 | $59,899 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $56.37 | -5.1% | · | $949 | -5.1% |
| 2 months | $58.39 | -8.4% | · | $916 | -8.4% |
| 3 months | $47.58 | +12.4% | · | $1,124 | +12.4% |
| 6 months | $37.01 | +44.5% | · | $1,445 | +44.5% |
| 1 year | $26.04 | +105.4% | · | $2,054 | +105.4% |
| 2 years | $16.67 | +220.8% | · | $3,208 | +220.8% |
| 3 years | $4.69 | +1,040.2% | · | $11,402 | +1,040.2% |
| 5 years | $28.30 | +89.0% | · | $1,890 | +89.0% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever APEI does next, these words stay.
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