Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.26, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price130.55 USD
Fair value160.00
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Markup127.43+2.4% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-21Read Accumulation127.43+2.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 6% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown120.70+8.2% to today Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-13Read Markup118.80+9.9% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 15% rise in 6 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
J.M. Smucker Company (The) holds its Markup at $130.55. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 297 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 297 days
Price at the screen
$130.55
Valuation
59.80 trailing · 11.64 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.25
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
44.19%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.92%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.35%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
J.M. Smucker Company (The)'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 44% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly an 18% discount to our $160.00 fair value, weak competitive moat, 5.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 18.4% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $160.00, with a range of $160.00 to $261.10, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Strong brands cannot fix weak numbers
Walk down any supermarket aisle and Smucker products sit on the shelf in every category from coffee to pet food. Yet this defensive name earns an avoid because negative profit margins and return on equity show the business is not covering its costs, even with 6 percent revenue growth.
A forward multiple of 10.5 times looks attractive next to a consensus target near 125 dollars, but the weak moat and negative 2 percent margins point to structural pressure rather than a bargain. The ethical screen also fails on the debt ratio, ruling the name out regardless of the 13 percent gap to our fair value.
High debt in a low-growth category often signals a value trap where earnings stay depressed and balance sheet repairs eat any cash flow. The market's buy rating does not change that arithmetic.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SJM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markup$127.98+0.4%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116.
2026-10-28Markup · changed$127.43+0.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116.
2026-10-14Markdown$119.83-0.7%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$120.70-4.1%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116.
2026-08-26Markup$125.87+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Markup$125.87+6.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Markup$118.80+0.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Markup$118.80+0.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-13Markup · changed$118.80+14.7%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $116.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
