NAS10028,385−3.46%S&P7,580−1.82%GOLD$3,914+0.38%BTC$77,790−0.59%VIX19.02−2.06%latest tape · as of 12:01 UTC
The Screen · Technology · Semiconductors
Microchip Technology
MCHP · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $44.0B
Microchip Technology Incorporated develops, manufactures, and sells smart, connected, and secure embedded control solutions in the Americas, Europe, and Asia.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
77.34 USD
Price as of 30 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-10-30 · the tape above runs as of 12:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-16
Options put/call open interest 0.11, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price77.34 USD
Fair value71.93
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation78.69-1.7% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-08-05Read Distribution77.90-0.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 12% slide in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup88.34-12.5% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Microchip Technology holds its Accumulation at $77.34. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 57 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 57 days
Price at the screen
$77.34
Valuation
119.29 trailing · 17.64 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.76
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
36.85%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 36.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.47%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.21%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Microchip Technology's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 37% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-01. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today MCHP does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $71.93 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 38.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 7.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 25 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +36% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $71.93, with a range of $67.50 to $82.72, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Chips in every gadget yet margins stay thin
Microchip builds the control chips that sit inside cars, factory gear and household devices. Revenue has jumped 35 percent lately, yet the business earns just a 5 percent profit margin and returns only 3 percent on equity. The ethical screen flags high debt, so the name fails outright.
We pass for clear reasons. The moat looks weak, forward earnings sit at 19.5 times, and our fair value sits below the current price. In a cyclical chip market that often peaks just when multiples look cheapest, low returns plus leverage spell a classic value trap rather than a bargain.
Analysts still push a buy with targets near 118 dollars, but the numbers and the debt screen tell a different story. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MCHP trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Accumulation$77.34-4.7%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$81.12+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$81.12+9.5%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$74.05-0.3%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$74.26+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113.
2026-10-16Accumulation$74.26-5.6%Entry 7
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113.
2026-09-05Distribution$75.81-2.7%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113.
2026-07-18Markup$88.34+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $113.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
