Pagaya Technologies Ltd., a product-focused technology company, deploys data science and proprietary artificial intelligence-powered technology for financial services, their customers, and institutional or sophisticated…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
17.41 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 06:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price17.41 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.36, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price17.41 USD
Fair value33.75
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-27Read Accumulation19.22-9.4% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after an 8% slide in 4 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown20.90-16.7% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 36% rise in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Accumulation15.42+12.9% to today ✓First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. holds its Accumulation at $17.41. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 472 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 472 days
Price at the screen
$17.41
Valuation
10.36 trailing · 4.14 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
5.69
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
55.53%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 55.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
62.02%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 62.0% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
25.14%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 25.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
3.84%
Below 5%
Only 3.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Pagaya Technologies's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 56% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when PGY's ethical verdict changes
Today PGY does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 48% discount to our $33.75 fair value, 11.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 48.4% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $33.75, with a range of $33.75 to $34.82, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap AI finance tools but no standout edge
Picture a data engine that helps banks and investors pick better loans without the usual headaches. Pagaya brings artificial intelligence to parts of lending that traditional players still handle slowly. Yet the opportunity rating sits at none, because revenue growth of just 10 percent and a 7 percent profit margin do not mark it out from faster peers even at a forward multiple of 4.9 times.
The balance sheet shows a 16 percent return on equity and the ethical screen clears cleanly. Analyst targets cluster around 26 dollars against our fair value of 31.88, leaving an apparent margin of safety above 80 percent at the current 17.15 price. An unknown moat keeps the case from moving beyond arithmetic appeal.
Low growth leaves little room for error if competition intensifies or credit cycles turn. Currency and execution risks in its three main markets add further uncertainty. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PGY trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Accumulation$19.12+1.3%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $27. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-29Accumulation$18.88-1.8%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $27. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$19.22+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $27. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $27. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$19.22+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $27. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$19.22+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $27. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$19.22+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $27. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$19.22+14.3%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 14.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $27. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$16.81+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $27. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$16.81-19.6%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 19.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $27. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
