Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 6.17, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price322.45 USD
Fair value254.35
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Accumulation321.20+0.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-09Read Markdown322.80-0.1% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-08-08Read Accumulation319.99+0.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-07-02Read Markdown318.71+1.2% to today First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Penumbra Inc holds its Accumulation at $322.45. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 179 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 179 days
Price at the screen
$322.45
Valuation
79.91 trailing · 53.12 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.70
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
12.03%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 12.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
19.60%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 19.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
20.64%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 20.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.16%
Below 5%
Only 1.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Penumbra clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 12%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today PEN passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $254.35 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 14.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 26.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $254.35, with a range of $254.35 to $292.51, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Premium Prices for Clot Clearing Devices
Picture a surgeon reaching for a vacuum tool to clear a sudden clot and you have Penumbra in a nutshell. The business grows revenue at 16 percent a year and clears ethical screens, yet it trades at 51 times forward earnings with a narrow moat and just 12 percent profit margins.
Our fair value sits at 255 dollars against a market price of 318 dollars, a 20 percent premium that leaves no margin of safety. Return on equity of 13 percent and a hold consensus from analysts do not change the fact that the valuation already prices in strong growth the numbers have yet to deliver.
The main risk is that any slowdown in procedure volumes or fresh competition in thrombectomy devices would hit an already rich multiple hard. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PEN trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Accumulation$320.02-0.4%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $363. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$321.34+0.7%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $363. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$318.95+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $363. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$318.95+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $363. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$318.95+0.2%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $363. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$318.31+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $363. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$318.31-2.1%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $363. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$325.22+1.3%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $363. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $363.
2026-10-14Markdown$319.40+0.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $363.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
