Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.55, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price41.41 USD
Fair value51.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Markup41.41+0.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 7% slide in 6 days
2026-10-26Read Accumulation44.73-7.4% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-23Read Markup44.73-7.4% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after an 11% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown40.13+3.2% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Match Group, Inc. holds its Markup at $41.41. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 61 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 61 days
Price at the screen
$41.41
Valuation
15.86 trailing · 9.77 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.43
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
89.06%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 89.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.08%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
29.85%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 29.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.63%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Match Group,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 89% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-01. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today MTCH does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 23.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $51.00, with a range of $51.00 to $82.82, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Dating apps show thin growth ahead
People still swipe every night looking for a match, yet the company running Tinder and Hinge now posts just 4% revenue growth. At a forward P/E of 9.3x and a 19% profit margin the numbers look steady, but the opportunity rating sits at none even though our fair value sits well above the current price. Analysts cluster around a $40 target that barely moves the needle from here.
We pass because the growth rate simply does not justify stepping in. Unknown moat and single-digit revenue expansion leave little margin for error once user habits shift or competition intensifies. The ethical screen clears, yet that alone does not create an investable case when expansion has slowed to a crawl.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MTCH trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markup · changed$41.41-9.4%Entry 15
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 9.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$45.73+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$45.73+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$45.73+2.2%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$44.73+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$44.73+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $41. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markup · changed$44.73+5.6%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-10-16Markdown$42.36+5.6%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$40.13-4.9%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $41.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
