NAS10028,385−3.46%S&P7,580−1.82%GOLD$3,899−3.29%BTC$77,765+0.73%VIX19.42+12.91%latest tape · as of 06:01 UTC
The Screen · Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Tencent Music Entertainment Group ADR
TME · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $13.8B · 5,690 employees
Tencent Music Entertainment Group operates online music entertainment platforms that provides music streaming, online karaoke, and live streaming services in the People's Republic of China.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
8.41 USD
Price as of 30 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-10-30 · the tape above runs as of 06:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price8.41 USD at the 30 Oct 2026 close
Ethical screenDoes not pass
OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 1.05)
Last reviewed30 Oct 2026 (2 days ago)
Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 8.41 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 14.50, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.05, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price8.41 USD
Fair value14.50
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation7.96+5.7% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-14Read Markdown8.20+2.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 14% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-14Read Distribution9.52-11.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution
2026-07-02Read Markup9.22-8.8% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Tencent Music Entertainment Group ADR holds its Accumulation at $8.41. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 29 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 29 days
Price at the screen
$8.41
Valuation
10.34 trailing · 8.39 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.75
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
3.72%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 3.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
39.06%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 39.1% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
12.07%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
3.20%
Below 5%
Only 3.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Tencent Music Entertainment's business is fine, but its cash and interest-bearing securities are about 39% of its assets, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-31. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when TME's ethical verdict changes
Today TME does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 72.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 28 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +38% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
China music streaming looks cheap but fragile
Picture a packed karaoke bar in Shanghai where the playlist never changes and rivals keep adding new rooms next door. Tencent Music runs the biggest platforms there yet revenue is crawling along at just 7 percent while the moat stays weak. The 8.6 times forward earnings and 26 percent profit margin look attractive on paper but the 12 percent return on equity tells you the returns are not durable.
We pass. The numbers show a business that clears our ethical screen yet lacks the competitive edge needed to protect those margins over time. Analyst targets sit at 14 dollars against a 9.12 dollar price but a wide gap to fair value means little when growth stays this modest and switching costs for users remain low.
China regulatory risk and fresh competition from short-video platforms could squeeze the live-streaming side that still drives much of the profit. Low multiples on slow-growing earnings have trapped investors before. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TME trades on the NYSE (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Accumulation$8.48+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-10-18Accumulation$8.48+6.5%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-10-11Accumulation · changed$7.96+2.6%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-10-02Markdown$7.76-5.4%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-09-14Markdown · changed$8.20-13.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 13.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-08-14Distribution · changed$9.52+3.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-07-18Markup$9.22+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (28 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-07-03Markup$9.22+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$9.22Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
