Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 3.17, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price46.08 USD
Fair value49.74
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Distribution49.43-6.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 9% slide in 7 days
2026-10-29Read Markdown54.06-14.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 7% slide in 12 days
2026-10-17Read Distribution57.98-20.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-02Read Accumulation56.64-18.6% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 25% rise in 13 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Dorian LPG Ltd. holds its Distribution at $46.08. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 62 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 62 days
Price at the screen
$46.08
Valuation
6.55 trailing · 10.07 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.78
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.91%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 37.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
17.60%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.31%
Below 5%
Only 2.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Dorian LPG's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 38% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 1% discount to our $49.74 fair value, 124.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 7.4% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +26% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $49.74, with a range of $45.90 to $57.21, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
LPG Tankers Ride Boom Earnings That May Fade Fast
Picture a fleet of twenty eight very large gas carriers moving LPG from one port to the next. Dorian LPG has delivered 105 percent revenue growth and a 41 percent profit margin, with return on equity at 18 percent. We pass all the same. The shares sit above our fair value estimate and carry no margin of safety at the current price.
The forward multiple of 11.9 times earnings looks modest until you remember this is a pure cyclical business. Peak shipping rates can inflate earnings and make any multiple look cheap right before rates reset. Analysts may favour the name yet the numbers point to a classic value trap rather than a durable bargain.
Energy price swings and fleet utilisation swings remain the real drivers here, even though the ethical screen clears. In shipping, low multiples often mark the top of the cycle, not an entry point. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LPG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 110%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $48. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Markdown$51.96-4.5%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 110%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $48. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markdown$54.43+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 110%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $48. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markdown$54.43+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 110%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $48. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markdown$54.43+0.7%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 110%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $48. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markdown$54.06+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 110%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $48. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markdown$54.06+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 110%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $48. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markdown · changed$54.06+3.2%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 110%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $48. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$52.40-9.6%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 110%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $48. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 110%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $48. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
