Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price21.98 USD
Fair value22.31
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-31Read Markdown21.98+0.0% to today
2026-07-02Read Markup17.01+29.2% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Groupon, Inc. holds its Markdown at $21.98. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-13
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$21.98
Valuation
N/A trailing · 10.62 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.28
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
52.15%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 52.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
48.01%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 48.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.19%
Below 5%
Only 1.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · Ethical Consumer Boycotts List
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Documented on Ethical Consumer Boycotts List. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-13 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-13 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Daily deals model fails to spark growth
Picture the inbox coupon that once felt like a clever hack. Groupon still runs that marketplace, linking shoppers to local discounts across beauty, food and services, yet the business now posts zero revenue growth and a 21 percent loss margin at a share price well above our fair value.
We pass because the numbers show no operating momentum and an unknown competitive edge. Forward earnings sit at 13.4 times, but flat sales and consistent losses leave little room for the multiple to hold when consumer habits have moved on.
Currency swings and execution risk remain real, even after clearing the ethical screen. The gap between price and fair value offers no cushion. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GRPN trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-31Markdown · changed$21.98-21.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 21.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-31Markup$27.83+63.6%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 63.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-18Markup$17.01+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-03Markup$17.01+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$17.01Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.