Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price21.92 USD
Fair value22.57
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-24Read Markdown21.92+0.0% to today
2026-08-22Read Markup20.47+7.1% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown20.47+7.1% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Avidia Bancorp Inc holds its Markdown at $21.92. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$21.92
Valuation
28.47 trailing · 15.55 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Banks - Regional
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Banks - Regional
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Avidia Bancorp does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-03. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AVBC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$21.92+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-09-24Markdown · changed$21.92+7.1%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-08-22Markup · changed$20.47+0.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-22Markdown$20.47+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-18Markdown$20.47+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-03Markdown$20.47+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$20.47Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What Holding Actually Paid · Price Plus Dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$19.36
+3.7%
$0.05
$1,039
+3.9%
2 months
$20.39
-1.6%
$0.05
$987
-1.3%
3 months
$18.70
+7.3%
$0.05
$1,076
+7.6%
6 months
$16.94
+18.4%
$0.10
$1,190
+19.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever AVBC does next, these words stay.
Avidia Bancorp Inc · AVBC · Markdown · $21.92
Recorded 2026-09-21 · before the outcome · scored mechanically