Framework Journal · one stock, one dated entry

Recorded 2026-07-24 · Permanent

An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.

In plain words · Apple Inc.

The label
Markup

read at $333.02

Apple Inc. holds its Markup at $333.02.

PHINPOOPSC
  • PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
  • INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
  • POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
  • OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
  • SCScreen · passes the values gate
  • edge confirmed
  • edge broken
  • edge forming

Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.

The investor read · the season, not the day

As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
PhaseMarkup
Quantitative stateThe statistical read favours the sellers, held for 201 days
Price$333.02
Valuation40.27 trailing · 34.54 forward price to earnings
Values screenPASS · score 76.1
Beta1.10

The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth

Our framework reads OVERVALUED — it trades above our $259.08 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 16.60% revenue growth.

Read at
$333.02
40.27 P/E · 34.54 fwd
Our fair value
$259.08
22% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$329.00
-1% to current
Target low $215.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $400.00
▲ current $333.02 · | average target

Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going

$422$262$102TODAY5y agoPROJECTIONAnalyst high$400.00 +36%Analyst avg$329.00 +12%Our fair value$259.08 -12%Conservative$193.50 -34%

The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street

Current
$333.02
you are here
Conservative
$193.50
-42%
Analyst avg
$329.00
-1%
Our fair value
$259.08
-22%
Analyst high
$400.00
+20%

Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.

Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.

Revenue growth16.60%
Profit margin27.15%
Debt to equity79.55
Analyst consensusBuy · 43 covering

Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.

The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English

This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:

The common standard · AAOIFI
Used by most halal investing apps
✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard · asset-based
The one Titan applies
✓ PASSES

What these two standards are, and how they differ →

  • Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
  • Debt load Interest-bearing debt is just 27.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money. Pass
  • Interest-bearing cash Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 21.6% of assets, under the one-third limit. Pass
  • Receivables Money owed to the company is 21.1% of assets, under the 49% limit. Pass
  • Revenue purity Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass

Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.

The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean

Apple trades well above its true worth

Picture the world's favourite gadget maker, still pulling in steady upgrades from loyal users across every continent. Apple keeps posting 17% revenue growth, 27% profit margins and a 141% ROE, all protected by a genuinely strong moat. Yet the shares sit at $333.74 against a fair value of $258.32, a 23% premium that leaves little margin for error.

That gap is the reason we pass. A forward multiple of 34.6 times already prices in years of flawless execution, while analyst targets cluster around $325. Strong numbers and an ethical pass do not change the simple fact that the price has run ahead of the business.

The main risk is straightforward. Any slowdown in iPhone cycles or margin pressure from new markets would hit a valuation this stretched hard. Analysis, not advice.

The fundamentals · plain-English read
Forward P/E34.5x
expensive even after accounting for its growth
Trailing P/E40.3x
expensive — the price assumes strong growth ahead
Revenue growth16.6%
steady growth
Profit margin27.2%
healthy profit margins
Return on equity141.5%
an exceptional return on shareholder capital
Debt to equity0.80
moderate, manageable leverage
Current ratio1.07
adequate liquidity, worth monitoring
Beta1.10
moves a little more than the market
Market cap$4.89T
Employees166,000

The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.

Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.

Latest news · what the market is reading on AAPL

Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.

Related securities · others in AAPL's space worth a look

Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.

Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are

AAPL trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.

The trader read · the latest dated commentary

The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-30 · Markup

The dated journal · newest first, never edited

2026-07-30 Markup · changed $333.02 +0.0% Entry 12

The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-28 Accumulation $333.02 +0.0% Entry 11

The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-27 Accumulation $333.02 +0.0% Entry 10

The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-26 Accumulation $333.02 +0.0% Entry 9

The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-25 Accumulation $333.02 -0.2% Entry 8

The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-24 Accumulation $333.74 +0.0% Entry 7

The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-23 Accumulation $333.74 +0.0% Entry 6

The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-20 Accumulation $333.74 +8.6% Entry 5

The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.

2026-07-18 Accumulation $307.34 +0.0% Entry 4

The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.

2026-07-16 Accumulation $307.34 +0.0% Entry 3

The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (43 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $309. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.

Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.

The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed

Most recent filings · AAPL
DateInsiderTitleTypeSharesValue
2026-05-27 Levinson Arthur D Dir Sale 50,000 $15,551,000
2026-05-08 BORDERS BEN Officer 1,274 $369,460
2026-05-06 LEVINSON ARTHUR D Director 5,000 ·
2026-05-06 LEVINSON ARTHUR D Director 250,000 $71,189,722
2026-04-23 PAREKH KEVAN Chief Financial Officer 1,534 $421,850
2026-04-15 BORDERS BEN Officer 1,717 ·
2026-04-15 PAREKH KEVAN Chief Financial Officer 10,928 ·
2026-04-02 COOK TIMOTHY D Chief Executive Officer 64,949 $16,512,198
2026-04-02 O'BRIEN DEIRDRE Officer 30,002 $7,660,875
2026-04-01 COOK TIMOTHY D Chief Executive Officer 131,576 ·

Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.

The political ledger · congressional disclosures

Disclosures naming AAPL
DatePoliticianPartyTypeAmount
7 Feb2025 Tim Walberg Republican buy 15K–50K
5 Jun2026 Gil Cisneros Democrat buy 1K–15K
2026-05-15 David Taylor Republican Sale 1K–15K
2026-04-15 John McGuire Republican Purchase 1K–15K
2026-04-13 Ro Khanna Democrat Sale 15K–50K

What holding actually paid · price plus dividends

If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
PeriodPrice thenPrice returnDivs per share$1,000 becameTotal return
1 month $292.68 +0.2% $0.27 $1,002 +0.2%
2 months $260.24 +12.6% $0.27 $1,127 +12.7%
3 months $255.52 +14.7% $0.27 $1,148 +14.8%
6 months $277.51 +5.6% $0.53 $1,058 +5.8%
1 year $201.87 +45.2% $1.05 $1,457 +45.7%
2 years $191.46 +53.1% $2.06 $1,542 +54.2%
3 years $178.46 +64.3% $3.03 $1,659 +65.9%
5 years $124.13 +136.1% $4.85 $2,400 +140.0%

Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever AAPL does next, these words stay.

Apple Inc. · AAPL · Markup · $333.02
Recorded 2026-07-24 · before the outcome · scored mechanically

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