Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price10.30 USD
Fair value19.12
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-06Read Markdown10.30+0.0% to today
2026-08-07Read Distribution10.30+0.0% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown10.30+0.0% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Noah Holdings Limited holds its Markdown at $10.30. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 41 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-05-22
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 41 days
Price at the screen
$10.30
Valuation
8.65 trailing · 6.51 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: conventional financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Debt load
15.59%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 15.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
756.62%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 756.6% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-05-22 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 85.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-05-22 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NOAH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-06Markdown · changed$10.30+0.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $11.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-18Markdown$10.30+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-03Markdown$10.30+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$10.30Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What Holding Actually Paid · Price Plus Dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$10.62
-4.5%
·
$955
-4.5%
2 months
$10.02
+1.3%
·
$1,013
+1.3%
3 months
$11.37
-10.8%
·
$892
-10.8%
6 months
$10.09
+0.6%
·
$1,006
+0.6%
1 year
$10.82
-6.3%
$1.16
$1,044
+4.4%
2 years
$7.52
+35.0%
$3.28
$1,786
+78.6%
3 years
$11.50
-11.8%
$3.68
$1,202
+20.2%
5 years
$31.08
-67.4%
$3.68
$445
-55.5%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever NOAH does next, these words stay.
Noah Holdings Limited · NOAH · Markdown · $10.30
Recorded 2026-05-22 · before the outcome · scored mechanically