2026-10-25
Does not pass
Alibaba does not pass the ethical screen. The binding factor is interest/revenue 8.5%.
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latest tape · as of 20:03 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail
Alibaba Group Holding
BABA · NYSE (ADR) · Market cap $277.7B · 131,462 employees
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen105.29
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price105.29 at the 4 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026
- Our regime readMarkdown, as of 4 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenDoes not pass
- OptionsOpen interest leans slightly to calls (put/call 0.72)
- Last reviewed4 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: 151.88 to 210.58 , base estimate 196.62 (screen dated 2026-11-04).
- Trend Markdown
- Insiders insiders sold, $91,855, latest filing 2026-09-25
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.72, read 2026-11-04
- Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price105.29
Fair value196.62
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Markdown111.13-5.3% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-18Read Accumulation111.13-5.3% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown115.75-9.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-25Read Markup112.82-6.7% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markdown label.
Alibaba Group Holding holds its Markdown at $105.29. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 61 days.
| Phase | Markdown · caution |
| Quantitative state | Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 61 days |
| Price at the screen | $105.29 |
| Valuation | 17.81 trailing · 12.57 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | FAIL · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 0.46 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest/revenue 8.5%
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Revenue purity | 8.55% | Below 5% | 8.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line. | Fail |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadWhy It Falls Short, in Plain English
Alibaba does not pass the ethical screen. The binding factor is interest/revenue 8.5%.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Alibaba clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
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The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 46% discount to our 196.62 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 2.90% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in , drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 46.5% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 40 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +81% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate 196.62 , with a range of 151.88 to 210.58 , dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsWhy it stands out
A 3%-growth business trading at just 12.6x forward earnings, with a narrow competitive moat and minimal debt. That is a 46% discount to our 196.62 fair value: the market is pricing it cautiously while the fundamentals argue otherwise. 40 analysts rate it Strong Buy with a 190.73 average target, about 81% above the screened price.
| Forward P/E | 12.6xexpensive even after accounting for its growth |
| Trailing P/E | 17.8xreasonably valued |
| EPS, trailing | 6.50 |
| EPS, forward | 9.20 |
| Revenue growth | +2.9%slow but positive growth |
| Profit margin | 10.1%thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 9.2%a modest return on shareholder capital |
| Dividend yield | 93.00% |
| Debt to equity | 0.25minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 1.28adequate liquidity, worth monitoring |
| Beta | 0.46barely tracks the market's swings |
| Short interest, float | 0.02% |
| 52-week range | 103.71 - 192.67 |
| Moat | NARROW |
| Market cap | $277.7B |
| Employees | 131,462 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeBABA trades on NYSE (ADR) (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01
Markdown $98.04
-11.8% Entry 17
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-10-25
Markdown · changed $111.13
+0.0% Entry 16
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-10-18
Accumulation · changed $111.13
-4.0% Entry 15
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-10-11
Markdown $115.75
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-10-02
Markdown · changed $115.75
+2.6% Entry 13
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-08-28
Markup $112.82
+0.0% Entry 12
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-27
Markup $112.82
+0.0% Entry 11
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26
Markup $112.82
+0.0% Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25
Markup · changed $112.82
+0.0% Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24
Accumulation $112.82
+0.0% Entry 8
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (40 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $191. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Yu Siying | GC | S - Sale+OE | 6,764 | $91,855 |
| 2026-09-25 | Jiang Fang | Chief People Officer | S - Sale+OE | 4,889 | $66,344 |
| 2026-09-25 | Xu Hong | CFO | S - Sale+OE | 103,046 | $1,409,669 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Gil Cisneros | Democrat | sell | 100K–250K |
| 2026-07-24 | Gil Cisneros | Democrat | sell | 100K–250K |
| 2026-07-24 | Gil Cisneros | Democrat | sell | 100K–250K |
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $137.30 | -15.6% | · | $844 | -15.6% |
| 2 months | $127.33 | -9.0% | · | $910 | -9.0% |
| 3 months | $134.20 | -13.6% | · | $864 | -13.6% |
| 6 months | $156.90 | -26.1% | · | $739 | -26.1% |
| 1 year | $119.85 | -3.3% | $2.00 | $984 | -1.6% |
| 2 years | $76.32 | +51.9% | $3.66 | $1,566 | +56.6% |
| 3 years | $81.20 | +42.7% | $4.66 | $1,485 | +48.5% |
| 5 years | $200.99 | -42.3% | $4.66 | $600 | -40.0% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever BABA does next, these words stay.
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