An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · ASML Holding N.V.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $1,863.55
ASML Holding N.V. holds its Markup at $1,863.55.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · screen not yet scored
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-06-14
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 262 days
Price
$1,863.55
Valuation
62.49 trailing · 38.82 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
1.40
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads OVERVALUED — it trades above our $1,064.46 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 13.20% revenue growth.
Read at
$1,863.55
62.49 P/E · 38.82 fwd
Our fair value
$1,064.46
43% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$1,723.27
-8% to current
Target low $895.31Analyst target rangeTarget high $2,261.18
▲ current $1,863.55 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$1,863.55
you are here
Conservative
$931.77
-50%
Analyst avg
$1,723.27
-8%
Our fair value
$1,064.46
-43%
Analyst high
$2,261.18
+21%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
13.20%
Profit margin
29.71%
Debt to equity
12.99
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 15 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Why it gives us pause
At 38.8x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 43% above our $1,064.46 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount. The strong moat is real, but quality alone does not make an expensive price cheap.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Netherlands and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
ASML trades on NASDAQ (the company is based in Netherlands). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1665. Entered 2026-07-21 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-21Markup$1,863.55+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1665.
2026-07-18Markup$1,863.55+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1665.
2026-07-15Markup$1,863.55+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markup$1,863.55+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$1,863.55Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$1,565.81
+11.4%
·
$1,114
+11.4%
2 months
$1,475.06
+18.2%
$3.18
$1,184
+18.4%
3 months
$1,348.63
+29.3%
$3.18
$1,295
+29.5%
6 months
$1,118.92
+55.9%
$5.06
$1,563
+56.3%
1 year
$778.87
+123.9%
$8.77
$2,250
+125.0%
2 years
$1,023.97
+70.3%
$15.72
$1,718
+71.8%
3 years
$697.63
+150.0%
$22.27
$2,532
+153.2%
5 years
$665.88
+161.9%
$34.32
$2,670
+167.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever ASML does next, these words stay.
ASML Holding N.V. · ASML · Markup · $1,863.55
Recorded 2026-06-14 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
