Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.14, read 2026-11-03
Ethical screen not yet scored
Price1,552.14
Fair value1,064.46
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Markdown1,657.44-6.4% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-11Read Accumulation1,711.32-9.3% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-24Read Markup1,711.32-9.3% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after an 8% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-22Read Distribution1,863.55-16.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
ASML Holding N.V. holds its Markdown at $1,552.14. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 57 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 57 days
Price at the screen
$1,552.14
Valuation
57.39 trailing · 35.65 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
1.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.68%
Below 5%
Only 0.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
The Read, in Plain English
ASML clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades above our 1,064.46 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 13.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in , drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 45.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate 1,064.46 , with a range of 805.78 to 1,224.13 , dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 35.7x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 43% above our 1,064.46 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount. The strong moat is real, but quality alone does not make an expensive price cheap.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Netherlands and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ASML trades on NASDAQ (the company is based in Netherlands). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markdown$1,565.90-5.5%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1665.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1665.
2026-10-18Accumulation$1,657.44-3.1%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1665.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1665.
2026-10-02Markup$1,711.32+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1665.
2026-09-24Markup · changed$1,711.32-8.2%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 8.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1665.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1665.
2026-07-21Markup$1,863.55+0.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1665.
2026-07-18Markup$1,863.55+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1665.
2026-07-15Markup$1,863.55+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The Political Ledger · Congressional Disclosures
Disclosures naming ASML
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
2026-10-23
Kevin Hern
Republican
sell
15K–50K
2026-08-14
Ro Khanna
Democrat
sell
1K–15K
2026-08-14
Ro Khanna
Democrat
sell
1K–15K
2026-08-14
Ro Khanna
Democrat
sell
1K–15K
2026-08-07
Michael McCaul
Republican
buy
15K–50K
What Holding Actually Paid · Price Plus Dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$1,565.81
+11.4%
·
$1,114
+11.4%
2 months
$1,475.06
+18.2%
$3.18
$1,184
+18.4%
3 months
$1,348.63
+29.3%
$3.18
$1,295
+29.5%
6 months
$1,118.92
+55.9%
$5.06
$1,563
+56.3%
1 year
$778.87
+123.9%
$8.77
$2,250
+125.0%
2 years
$1,023.97
+70.3%
$15.72
$1,718
+71.8%
3 years
$697.63
+150.0%
$22.27
$2,532
+153.2%
5 years
$665.88
+161.9%
$34.32
$2,670
+167.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever ASML does next, these words stay.
ASML Holding N.V. · ASML · Markdown · $1,552.14
Recorded 2026-11-03 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
