Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price17.16 SAR
Fair valueUnder review
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Distribution17.89-4.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 29% slide in 17 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown25.06-31.5% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Seera Group (Al Tayyar) holds its Distribution at $17.16. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$17.16
Valuation
7.37 trailing · 5.40 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.01
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
62.89%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 62.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.12%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Seera Group (Al Tayyar)'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 63% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when 4261.SR's ethical verdict changes
Today 4261.SR does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Fair value under review. The analyst targets sit too far from the price to cross-check it; our model's value is 3.89x the price, above our 2.00x limit. We show no fair value, margin of safety or value read built on it until the review clears.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Saudi Arabia and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
4261.SR trades on TADAWUL (the company is based in Saudi Arabia). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-10-24Markdown$19.32+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-10-10Markdown$19.32+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-10-02Markdown$19.32-22.9%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 22.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-09-18Markdown$25.06+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-08-19Markdown$25.06+0.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-07-19Markdown$25.06+0.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-07-18Markdown$25.06+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-07-15Markdown$25.06+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-03Markdown$25.06+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What Holding Actually Paid · Price Plus Dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$27.02
-6.7%
·
$933
-6.7%
2 months
$27.75
-9.1%
$0.28
$919
-8.1%
3 months
$30.57
-17.5%
$0.28
$834
-16.6%
6 months
$39.93
-36.8%
$0.67
$648
-35.2%
1 year
$42.63
-40.8%
$1.38
$624
-37.6%
2 years
$41.48
-39.2%
$2.47
$668
-33.2%
3 years
$50.10
-49.7%
$3.55
$574
-42.6%
5 years
$34.54
-27.0%
$5.35
$885
-11.5%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever 4261.SR does next, these words stay.
Seera Group (Al Tayyar) · 4261.SR · Distribution · $17.16
Recorded 2026-11-04 · before the outcome · scored mechanically