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The Screen · Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
4009National Medical Care
4009.SR · TADAWUL · SAR · Market cap $3.0B
Middle East Healthcare Company, a healthcare provider, owns and operates a network of hospitals under the Saudi German Hospital name in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
22.95 SAR
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 04:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price22.95 SAR at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Fair valueUnder review: our model's value is 2.37x the price, above our 2.00x limit.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price22.95 SAR
Fair valueUnder review
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-31Read Distribution23.15-0.9% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 28% slide in 6 weeks
2026-09-18Read Markdown32.20-28.7% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-07-02Read Distribution32.20-28.7% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
National Medical Care holds its Distribution at $22.95. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$22.95
Valuation
7.06 trailing · 7.70 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
-0.05
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
46.53%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 46.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
37.37%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 37.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
National Medical Care's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 47% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when 4009.SR's ethical verdict changes
Today 4009.SR does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Fair value under review. Our model's value is 2.37x the price, above our 2.00x limit. We show no fair value, margin of safety or value read built on it until the review clears.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Saudi Arabia and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
4009.SR trades on TADAWUL (the company is based in Saudi Arabia). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 19.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $66.
2026-10-24Markdown$28.80+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $66.
2026-10-10Markdown$28.80+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $66.
2026-10-02Markdown$28.80-10.6%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $66.
2026-09-18Markdown · changed$32.20+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $66.
2026-08-19Distribution$32.20+0.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $66.
2026-07-19Distribution$32.20+0.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $66.
2026-07-18Distribution$32.20+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $66.
2026-07-15Distribution$32.20+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-03Distribution$32.20+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What Holding Actually Paid · Price Plus Dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$34.42
-6.7%
·
$933
-6.7%
2 months
$36.60
-12.3%
·
$877
-12.3%
3 months
$32.20
-0.3%
·
$997
-0.3%
6 months
$37.00
-13.2%
·
$868
-13.2%
1 year
$57.50
-44.2%
$0.50
$567
-43.3%
2 years
$82.78
-61.2%
$0.50
$394
-60.6%
3 years
$67.12
-52.2%
$0.50
$486
-51.4%
5 years
$38.07
-15.7%
$0.50
$856
-14.4%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever 4009.SR does next, these words stay.
National Medical Care · 4009.SR · Distribution · $22.95
Recorded 2026-11-05 · before the outcome · scored mechanically