Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price317.60 USD
Fair value254.45
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-09Read Markdown322.80-1.6% to today ✓
2026-08-08Read Accumulation319.99-0.7% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown318.71-0.3% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Penumbra Inc holds its Markdown at $317.60. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 13 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 13 days
Price at the screen
$317.60
Valuation
77.84 trailing · 51.79 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.70
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
12.03%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 12.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
19.60%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 19.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
20.64%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 20.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.16%
Below 5%
Only 1.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 19.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Premium Prices for Clot Clearing Devices
Picture a surgeon reaching for a vacuum tool to clear a sudden clot and you have Penumbra in a nutshell. The business grows revenue at 16 percent a year and clears ethical screens, yet it trades at 51 times forward earnings with a narrow moat and just 12 percent profit margins.
Our fair value sits at 255 dollars against a market price of 318 dollars, a 20 percent premium that leaves no margin of safety. Return on equity of 13 percent and a hold consensus from analysts do not change the fact that the valuation already prices in strong growth the numbers have yet to deliver.
The main risk is that any slowdown in procedure volumes or fresh competition in thrombectomy devices would hit an already rich multiple hard. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PEN trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markdown · changed$322.80+0.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $363.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $363.
2026-07-18Markdown$318.71+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $363.
2026-07-03Markdown$318.71+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$318.71Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
