Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price3.45 USD
Fair value5.64
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markup3.33+3.6% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 10% rise in 5 weeks
2026-08-25Read Distribution3.04+13.5% to today Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since July
2026-07-25Read Markup3.04+13.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 13% rise in 3 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution2.70+27.8% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Commerce.com Inc holds its Markup at $3.45. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 16 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 16 days
Price at the screen
$3.45
Valuation
N/A trailing · 7.09 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.15
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
53.60%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 53.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
31.36%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 31.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
30.51%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 30.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.41%
Below 5%
Only 1.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Commerce.com's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 54% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today CMRC does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 39% discount to our $5.64 fair value, none competitive moat, 5.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 38.8% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $5.64, with a range of $4.15 to $6.90, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it stands out
A 5%-growth business trading at just 7.1x forward earnings, with a none competitive moat. That is a 39% discount to our $5.64 fair value: the market is pricing it cautiously while the fundamentals argue otherwise.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CMRC trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markup$3.56+2.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5.
2026-10-15Markup$3.48+4.5%Entry 7
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5.
2026-10-02Markup · changed$3.33+9.5%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5.
2026-08-25Distribution · changed$3.04+0.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5.
2026-07-25Markup · changed$3.04+12.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 12.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5.
2026-07-18Distribution$2.70+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5.
2026-07-03Distribution$2.70+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$2.70Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.