Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 2.28, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price208.76 USD
Fair value250.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-22Read Distribution220.17-5.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since August
2026-09-24Read Markup219.10-4.7% to today Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-08-22Read Distribution209.19-0.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after an 8% slide in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup226.78-7.9% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Arrow Electronics Inc holds its Distribution at $208.76. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 59 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 59 days
Price at the screen
$208.76
Valuation
13.39 trailing · 8.75 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.17
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
10.61%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 10.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
68.94%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 68.9% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.15%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Arrow Electronics's business is fine, but its receivables are about 69% of its assets, well over the ~49% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today ARW does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 17% discount to our $250.00 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 31.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 16.5% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $250.00, with a range of $250.00 to $417.52, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
The quiet middleman moving every server
Picture a vast warehouse network shifting chips and servers between factories and the firms that actually build products. Arrow sits in that chain across two big segments, yet the numbers show a business with only 2% profit margins and an 11% return on equity despite 39% revenue growth.
It passes the ethical screen without issue and trades at 9.7 times forward earnings with a 26% gap to our fair value. Even so the narrow moat and low returns leave little cushion, which is why the opportunity rating stays at none.
Electronics distribution often looks cheapest right at peak earnings, and a low multiple in this sector usually signals warning rather than value. Analyst targets cluster around 226, below our own estimate.
Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ARW trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Distribution$208.76+0.2%Entry 18
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $220. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Distribution$208.34+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $220. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Distribution$208.34+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $220. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Distribution$208.34-6.6%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $220. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Distribution$222.95+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $220. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Distribution$222.95+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $220. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Distribution$222.95+1.3%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $220. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $220. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markup$220.17-3.4%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $220.
2026-10-13Markup$227.90+4.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $220.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
