Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical screen not yet scored
Price28.07 USD
Fair valueUnder review
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-23Read Distribution27.79+1.0% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 21% slide in 7 days
2026-10-16Read Markdown35.31-20.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after an 8% slide in 2 weeks
2026-10-02Read Distribution38.25-26.6% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-14Read Accumulation39.83-29.5% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after an 11% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Tamboran Resources Corporation holds its Distribution at $28.07. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 92 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 92 days
Price at the screen
$28.07
Valuation
N/A trailing · -39.14 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
0.49
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
5.91%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 5.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.67%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
The Read, in Plain English
Tamboran Resources clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but its income-purity figure is still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Fair value under review. Our model's value is 2.06x the price, above our 1.35x limit. We show no fair value, margin of safety or value read built on it until the review clears.
Where our models see it going: no fair-value estimate yet, range not available, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gas dreams in the outback hit ethical gaps
Picture a drilling rig out in the Northern Territory chasing shale gas that might one day reach Asian buyers. Tamboran holds stakes across several permits and analysts are excited enough to slap a strong buy label with a median target of $56. Yet the business is still loss making, carries a forward multiple of minus 58 times and shows zero profit margin plus negative return on equity, which leaves little to go on.
We pass for two clear reasons that sit outside the usual valuation debate. First, the ethical screen returns insufficient data because key financial ratios are missing, and that alone blocks any further work. Second, this is a classic cyclical exploration and production name where a low or negative multiple often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain, and the unknown moat adds another layer of uncertainty.
Risk sits in the usual places for this sector, from commodity price swings and development delays to the simple fact that negative earnings give no cushion if the cycle turns. The gap between the current price and the stated fair value looks attractive on the surface but does not override the data shortfalls. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Australia and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TBN trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Australia). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Distribution$29.01+4.4%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $58.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 21.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-10-16Markdown · changed$35.31-7.7%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $58.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $58.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 11.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-08-14Markup · changed$35.86-11.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 11.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-07-18Markdown$40.37+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $58.
2026-07-03Markdown$40.37+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$40.37Entry 1
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
