Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.03, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price36.83 USD
Fair value57.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-15Read Accumulation39.19-6.0% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 7% slide in 5 weeks
2026-09-09Read Markdown41.92-12.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after an 11% slide in 10 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup47.19-22.0% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Douglas Dynamics, Inc. holds its Distribution at $36.83. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 50 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 50 days
Price at the screen
$36.83
Valuation
18.13 trailing · 12.36 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.22
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.95%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 35.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.89%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Douglas Dynamics,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 35% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today PLOW does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 33% discount to our $57.00 fair value, 10.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.4% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $57.00, with a range of $53.25 to $76.24, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it stands out
A 11%-growth business trading at just 12.4x forward earnings. That is a 33% discount to our $57.00 fair value: the market is pricing it cautiously while the fundamentals argue otherwise. 4 analysts rate it Buy with a $54.50 average target, about 48% above the screened price.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PLOW trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-02Accumulation$39.49+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$39.49+0.7%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$39.23+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$39.23+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$39.23-1.6%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$39.87+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$39.87+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$39.87+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$39.87+1.7%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 65%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
