Nayax Ltd., a fintech company, designs, develops, and sells integrated POS devices and software for automated self-service customers in-house in the United States, Europe, the United Kingdom, Australia, Israel, and the r…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
45.12 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Nayax Ltd. holds its Distribution at $45.12. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$45.12
Valuation
214.86 trailing · 28.83 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
-0.20
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
39.60%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 39.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.02%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
49.67%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 49.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.55%
Below 5%
Only 1.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 28.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +66% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cashless Vending Machines Trade Well Above Fair Value
Picture a coffee machine in a Tel Aviv office block that takes cards instead of coins. Nayax builds the terminals and software that make those transactions possible across dozens of countries. Revenue is rising 32 percent, yet the shares sit 12 percent above our fair value at a forward multiple of 47.6 times, which leaves little room for error.
The business earns a modest 7 percent profit margin and delivers a 14 percent return on equity with an unknown competitive moat. Analyst targets sit higher still, but our numbers show the price already bakes in strong execution that has yet to appear in the margins.
High valuation and thin profitability create real downside if growth slows or competition intensifies. The ethical screen clears, yet that does not change the stretched entry point. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Israel and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NYAX trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Israel). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 16.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $77.
2026-08-07Markup$64.36-5.1%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $77.
2026-07-18Markup$67.84+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $77.
2026-07-03Markup$67.84+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$67.84Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.