Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.27, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price136.50 USD
Fair value134.06
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Accumulation113.05+20.7% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 10% rise in 4 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown102.69+32.9% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 23% slide in 8 weeks
2026-08-05Read Distribution133.32+2.4% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 16% slide in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup158.50-13.9% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The Middleby Corporation holds its Accumulation at $136.50. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 55 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 55 days
Price at the screen
$136.50
Valuation
N/A trailing · 16.40 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.31
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.72%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 34.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.59%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
The Middleby's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 35% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today MIDD does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 3% discount to our $134.06 fair value, 9.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 1.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $134.06, with a range of $130.50 to $154.17, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Kitchen equipment supplier priced for recovery
Picture a busy restaurant kitchen where every oven and conveyor belt must keep working without fail. Middleby builds those machines for chains and processors worldwide. Revenue is rising 15 percent, the shares sit at 14.9 times forward earnings with a 26 percent gap to our fair value of 168 dollars, and the ethical screen raises no flags.
Yet the business reports a negative 13 percent profit margin and only 12 percent return on equity. Analysts like the name and point to 158 dollars, but our opportunity rating stays at none because the numbers do not yet show sustained cash generation or a clear edge over rivals.
The main risks sit in cyclical restaurant spending and the current margin hole. A recovery in demand could lift results, yet any slowdown would quickly expose the thin profitability. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MIDD trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Accumulation$127.55+3.9%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $195. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Accumulation$122.73+3.2%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $195. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$118.95+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $195. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$118.95+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $195. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$118.95+5.2%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $195. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$113.05+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $195. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$113.05+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $195. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $195. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$110.53+3.8%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $195. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-10-18Markdown$106.46+3.7%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $195.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.