2026-10-25
Certara, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
NAS100 27,087 +1.72%
S&P 7,401 +0.65%
GOLD $4,073 −1.00%
BTC $75,828 −0.15%
VIX 24.55 −12.88%
latest tape · as of 20:03 UTC
The Screen · Healthcare · Health Information Services
Certara, Inc.
CERT · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $1.9B · 1,515 employees
Certara, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology-driven services and software products for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access i…
Not yet scored12.18 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price12.18 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Our regime readMarkup, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.00)
- Last reviewed5 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $6.26 to $7.20, base estimate $6.26 (screen dated 2026-11-05).
- Trend Markup
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.00, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price12.18 USD
Fair value6.26
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Markup8.96+35.9% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 5% rise in 9 days
2026-10-02Read Accumulation8.52+43.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-24Read Markup8.15+49.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 57% rise in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution5.20+134.2% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markup label.
Certara, Inc. holds its Markup at $12.18. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 67 days.
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 67 days |
| Price at the screen | $12.18 |
| Valuation | N/A trailing · 31.11 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 1.25 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 19.66% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 19.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 18.24% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 18.2% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Certara, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Certara, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 20%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $6.26 fair value estimate, 1.00% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 94.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −26% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $6.26, with a range of $6.26 to $7.20, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsDrug modelling software priced above fair value
Certara builds software that lets pharma teams run virtual trials instead of the real thing, cutting time and cost in early drug work. Yet revenue is barely moving at 1 percent, the business posted a 4 percent loss and a negative 1 percent return on equity, and the shares trade at 6.93 dollars against a fair value of 5.69 dollars. That leaves an 18 percent premium to pay for a company whose growth has stalled.
We pass because the numbers do not justify the price. A forward multiple of 16.7 times sits on top of single-digit revenue growth and ongoing losses, while the moat remains unknown. Analyst chatter and a consensus target of 8 dollars cannot paper over the gap between what the market is asking and what the business is delivering.
Risk sits in execution and competition. Health software spend can shift quickly, and any slowdown in biotech funding would hit a low-growth, loss-making operator hard. Ethical screen cleared, but valuation and momentum do not. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 31.1xexpensive even after accounting for its growth |
| EPS, trailing | -0.14 |
| EPS, forward | 0.39 |
| Revenue growth | +1.0%slow but positive growth |
| Profit margin | -16.2%currently unprofitable |
| Return on equity | -2.2%not currently earning a positive return on equity |
| FCF yield | 3.37% |
| Debt to equity | 0.31minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 2.55comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 1.25moves a little more than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.26% |
| 52-week range | 4.45 - 12.25 |
| Market cap | $1.9B |
| Employees | 1,515 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeCERT trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05
Markup $11.09
+2.0% Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04
Markup $10.87
-1.4% Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03
Markup $11.02
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02
Markup $11.02
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01
Markup $11.02
-4.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31
Markup $11.48
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30
Markup $11.48
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29
Markup $11.48
+13.8% Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Markup $10.09
+4.5% Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-10-18
Markup $9.66
+7.8% Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $8.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- Absci Sinks 8%, Schrödinger and Recursion Slide as AI Drug Discovery Stocks Give Back Rally Yahoo Finance · 7d ago
- Certara to Report Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on November 5th, 2026 Yahoo Finance · 11d ago
- Certara (CERT) Stock May Trade Above Fair Value On Its 75% Slump Yahoo Finance · 14d ago
- Certara (CERT) Stock Fair Value Edges Higher As Analysts Weigh Turnaround Progress Yahoo Finance · 27d ago
- What Could Go Wrong With Recursion Pharmaceuticals Stock? Yahoo Finance · 29d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
OMCLOmnicell, Inc.
SDGRSchrödinger, Inc.
OMDAOmada Health, Inc.
TDOCTeladoc Health, Inc.
HSTMHealthstream Inc
PRVAPrivia Health Group, Inc.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $5.13 | +0.3% | · | $1,003 | +0.3% |
| 2 months | $5.55 | -7.3% | · | $927 | -7.3% |
| 3 months | $6.56 | -21.6% | · | $784 | -21.6% |
| 6 months | $8.81 | -41.6% | · | $584 | -41.6% |
| 1 year | $11.99 | -57.1% | · | $429 | -57.1% |
| 2 years | $15.78 | -67.4% | · | $326 | -67.4% |
| 3 years | $17.00 | -69.7% | · | $303 | -69.7% |
| 5 years | $26.92 | -80.9% | · | $191 | -80.9% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever CERT does next, these words stay.
Membership
Thirteen thousand names carry this page. One desk keeps them honest.
Membership opens the full screen archive, the composites built from it, and the daily coverage that prices what the screen approves.
Join the deskScreening is research, not a fatwa and not financial advice. Figures are drawn from public accounts at the screen date shown. Always manage your risk.