Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price9.20 USD
Fair value11.00Our model only; only one analyst covers it, too few to cross-check it.
Ethical score95.3/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown10.27-10.4% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 6% rise in 4 weeks
2026-09-04Read Accumulation9.73-5.4% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-04Read Markdown9.73-5.4% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown
2026-07-02Read Markup9.79-6.0% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Chicago Atlantic BDC, Inc. holds its Markdown at $9.20. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 96 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 96 days
Price at the screen
$9.20
Valuation
6.85 trailing · 6.11 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 95.3
Beta
0.27
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: conventional financial services (interest-based)
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Debt load
11.14%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 11.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.31%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
121.57%
Below 5%
121.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Chicago Atlantic BDC, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our model only; only one analyst covers it, too few to cross-check it.
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 17% discount to our $11.00 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 40.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 16.4% discount to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $11.00, with a range of $11.00 to $18.20, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cannabis loans priced like a broken lender
Picture a lender that steps into the cannabis trade where ordinary banks still refuse to tread. Chicago Atlantic BDC backs private operators with direct loans and equity stakes, capturing steady interest income from a sector that keeps expanding. Revenue climbing 40 percent and a 58 percent profit margin show the model is working, while the shares sit at 5.8 times forward earnings, well below fair value and offering a 13 percent margin of safety.
The business trades at a modest 11 percent return on equity yet carries a moderate competitive edge through specialist knowledge most generalist funds lack. One analyst lines up with the same $11 target, and the ethical screen raises no red flags on the lending book. That combination of cash generation and discounted valuation marks a clear strong opportunity.
Risk comes mainly from the narrow focus on a single regulated industry where policy shifts or harvest failures can hit repayments fast. Currency and credit exposure sit inside every BDC, and the modest return on equity leaves little buffer if defaults rise. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LIEN trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markdown$9.12+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-10-19Markdown$9.12-11.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$10.27+5.5%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-09-04Accumulation · changed$9.73+0.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-08-04Markdown · changed$9.73-0.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-18Markup$9.79+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-03Markup$9.79+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (95). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$9.79Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (95). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
