Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical screen not yet scored
Price43.16
Fair value42.14
Ethical score50.0/100
RatingFAIR VALUE
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-03Read Distribution42.97+0.4% to today
2026-08-03Read Markup42.97+0.4% to today ✓
2026-07-18Read Distribution42.97+0.4% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
BP PLC holds its Distribution at $43.16. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$43.16
Valuation
35.52 trailing · 10.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 50.0
Beta
-0.22
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · Don’t Buy Into Occupation, Palestinian BDS National Committee
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Documented on Don’t Buy Into Occupation / Palestinian BDS National Committee — category: Corporate Complicity Report / Annex 2 Company List. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads FAIR VALUE: it trades above our $42.14 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 11.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in , drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 2.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it is worth knowing
A quality business: a weak moat. At the screened price it sits 2% above our $42.14 fair value: priced for the quality, not a bargain.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BP trades on NYSE (ADR) (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $49.
2026-08-04Markup$42.97+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $49. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup · changed$42.97+0.0%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $49. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Distribution$42.97+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $49. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Distribution$42.97+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $49. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Distribution$42.97+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $49. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Distribution$42.97+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $49. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Distribution$42.97+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $49. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$42.97+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $49.
2026-07-18Distribution$42.97+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $49.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
