The Screen · Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
ASML Holding N.V.
ASML · NASDAQ · Market cap $718.2B · 43,882 employees
ASML Holding N.V.
Not yet scored
1,863.55
At the last full screen 2026-06-14
Screened 2026-06-14 · the tape above runs as of 23:26 UTC · 4 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
ASML Holding N.V. holds its Markdown at $1,863.55. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-06-14
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$1,863.55
Valuation
62.49 trailing · 38.82 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
1.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $1,064.46 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 13.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in , drawn from the 2026-06-14 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 42.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits −8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-06-14 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 38.8x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 43% above our $1,064.46 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount. The strong moat is real, but quality alone does not make an expensive price cheap.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Netherlands and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ASML trades on NASDAQ (the company is based in Netherlands). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1665.
2026-07-21Markup$1,863.55+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1665.
2026-07-18Markup$1,863.55+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1665.
2026-07-15Markup$1,863.55+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markup$1,863.55+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$1,863.55Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The Political Ledger · Congressional Disclosures
Disclosures naming ASML
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
30 Mar2026
Alan Armstrong
Republican
buy
50K–100K
3 May2024
Tommy Tuberville
Republican
sell
15K–50K
What Holding Actually Paid · Price Plus Dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$1,565.81
+11.4%
·
$1,114
+11.4%
2 months
$1,475.06
+18.2%
$3.18
$1,184
+18.4%
3 months
$1,348.63
+29.3%
$3.18
$1,295
+29.5%
6 months
$1,118.92
+55.9%
$5.06
$1,563
+56.3%
1 year
$778.87
+123.9%
$8.77
$2,250
+125.0%
2 years
$1,023.97
+70.3%
$15.72
$1,718
+71.8%
3 years
$697.63
+150.0%
$22.27
$2,532
+153.2%
5 years
$665.88
+161.9%
$34.32
$2,670
+167.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever ASML does next, these words stay.
ASML Holding N.V. · ASML · Markdown · $1,863.55
Recorded 2026-06-14 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
