An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides analog semiconductor solutions for use in wireless and wireline applications across the radio frequency (RF), microwave, millimeter wave…
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $263.08
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc holds its Distribution at $263.08.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-27
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 100 days
Price
$263.08
Valuation
111.95 trailing · 37.94 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.66
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$263.08
111.95 P/E · 37.94 fwd
Our fair value
$229.29
13% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$400.00
+52% to current
Target low $300.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $450.00
▲ current $263.08 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$263.08
you are here
Conservative
$229.29
-13%
Analyst avg
$400.00
+52%
Our fair value
$229.29
-13%
Analyst high
$450.00
+71%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
22.50%
Profit margin
16.46%
Debt to equity
29.20
Analyst consensus
Buy · 13 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Paying a Premium for Semiconductor Cycles
Picture a foundry running flat out during the next wireless boom, only to idle when demand swings the other way. MACOM sits in that exact spot, yet the shares trade at a 14% premium to our fair value with no opportunity rating attached.
Revenue is growing 22% and the firm clears a 16% profit margin with 13% ROE and a narrow moat. Those figures look respectable, yet the 38.6 times forward earnings multiple already prices in strong optimism that leaves little room for the usual industry swings.
Because the business is cyclical, peak margins often coincide with peak multiples and create lasting value traps once orders slow. Analysts may cluster around a $400 target, but the gap between price and fair value keeps us on the sidelines despite an ethical pass.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 83% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 176%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $398. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markup$379.87+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 83% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 176%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $398.
2026-07-03Markup$379.87+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$379.87Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$365.88
-3.2%
·
$968
-3.2%
2 months
$258.11
+37.2%
·
$1,372
+37.2%
3 months
$215.94
+64.0%
·
$1,640
+64.0%
6 months
$189.86
+86.5%
·
$1,865
+86.5%
1 year
$128.27
+176.1%
·
$2,761
+176.1%
2 years
$102.21
+246.4%
·
$3,464
+246.4%
3 years
$59.89
+491.2%
·
$5,912
+491.2%
5 years
$59.90
+491.1%
·
$5,911
+491.1%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever MTSI does next, these words stay.
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc · MTSI · Distribution · $263.08
Recorded 2026-07-27 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
