Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.04, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price11.85 USD
Fair value7.50
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation10.85+9.2% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown10.85+9.2% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown
2026-07-02Read Accumulation10.90+8.7% to today ✓First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
C3.ai, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $11.85. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 121 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 121 days
Price at the screen
$11.85
Valuation
N/A trailing · -27.20 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
2.10
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.68%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
62.39%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 62.4% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
20.43%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 20.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
11.37%
Below 5%
11.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
C3.ai,'s business is fine, but its cash and interest-bearing securities are about 62% of its assets, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-31. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 36.7% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $7.50, with a range of $6.00 to $16.00, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
AI Platform Chasing Growth That Has Vanished
Picture a software firm promising to turn every company into an AI powerhouse. C3.ai sells an enterprise platform for building those applications, yet its own numbers tell a different story. Revenue has dropped 52% while losses run at 188% of sales and return on equity sits at minus 63%. The shares trade above our fair value estimate with a forward multiple that is deeply negative.
We pass because nothing here supports ownership. The business shows no moat, growth has reversed sharply, and the price offers no margin of safety. Analyst targets cluster around the current level, leaving little room for error in a market already crowded with bigger rivals.
Execution risk remains high in a sector where spending can shift overnight. Currency moves or delayed deals would hit margins fast. Ethical screen clears, yet the financials still fail any basic test of durability. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Accumulation$11.85-2.5%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-25Accumulation$12.16+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Accumulation$12.16+12.1%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 12.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$10.85+5.0%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-09-21Accumulation$10.33+2.5%Entry 7
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-21Accumulation$10.08+14.3%Entry 6
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 14.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-20Accumulation$8.82-19.1%Entry 5
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 19.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-18Accumulation$10.90+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9.
2026-07-16Accumulation$10.90+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $9.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.