Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Pershing Square Inc holds its Distribution at $36.48.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Price at the screen
$36.48
Valuation
N/A trailing · 37.58 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Asset Management
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Asset Management
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 31.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Asset managers charge fees on other people's money
Asset managers sit at the top of the fee chain yet Pershing Square trades well above our fair value with a forward multiple of 37 times. The ethical screen rules it out outright because asset management sits on the excluded list. That alone ends the conversation.
Revenue is rising just 10 percent while profit margins and return on equity both sit at 11 percent with only a narrow moat. Analysts may still rate it a buy with a 40 dollar target but the 22 percent premium to fair value leaves no margin of safety.
The real danger is paying up for average growth in a business whose economics depend on market levels that can fall as fast as they rise. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-03Accumulation$40.06Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $42.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.