Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Carlyle Group Inc holds its Markdown at $44.11. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 99 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 99 days
Price at the screen
$44.11
Valuation
45.95 trailing · 8.63 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.83
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Asset Management
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Asset Management
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 51.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +29% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Private Equity Giant Fails Core Ethics Test
Money from pensions and sovereign funds flows through Carlyle into buyouts and credit plays across the globe. The firm looks cheap on a 9.1 times forward multiple with a 17 percent profit margin, yet revenue has collapsed 94 percent and the business sits in an excluded industry.
We pass outright. Asset management is on the banned list, so the 44 percent gap to our fair value and the buy-rated analyst targets do not matter. The narrow moat and 9 percent ROE simply reinforce the decision.
Cyclical fee income and carried-interest swings can turn fast when markets wobble, and currency or deal-flow shocks hit emerging exposures hard. Low multiples on distressed earnings have trapped investors before. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CG trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-25Markup · changed$49.37+7.2%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-24Markdown$46.07+0.7%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-18Markdown$45.75+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-03Markdown$45.75+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$45.75Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
