An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · The Carlyle Group Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $46.47
Carlyle Group Inc holds its Markup at $46.47.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-29
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 269 days
Price
$46.47
Valuation
31.83 trailing · 9.12 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.83
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$46.47
31.83 P/E · 9.12 fwd
Our fair value
$66.21
43% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$56.00
+21% to current
Target low $44.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $70.00
▲ current $46.47 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$46.47
you are here
Conservative
$57.32
+23%
Analyst avg
$56.00
+21%
Our fair value
$66.21
+42%
Analyst high
$70.00
+51%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
-94.10%
Profit margin
16.82%
Debt to equity
198.21
Analyst consensus
Buy · 17 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its excluded industry: asset management. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityExcluded industry: Asset ManagementFail
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Private Equity Giant Fails Core Ethics Test
Money from pensions and sovereign funds flows through Carlyle into buyouts and credit plays across the globe. The firm looks cheap on a 9.1 times forward multiple with a 17 percent profit margin, yet revenue has collapsed 94 percent and the business sits in an excluded industry.
We pass outright. Asset management is on the banned list, so the 44 percent gap to our fair value and the buy-rated analyst targets do not matter. The narrow moat and 9 percent ROE simply reinforce the decision.
Cyclical fee income and carried-interest swings can turn fast when markets wobble, and currency or deal-flow shocks hit emerging exposures hard. Low multiples on distressed earnings have trapped investors before. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in CG's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60. Entered 2026-07-24 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-24Markdown$46.07+0.7%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-18Markdown$45.75+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-03Markdown$45.75+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$45.75Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming CG
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
9 Apr2026
Josh Gottheimer
Democrat
sell
15K–50K
6 May2026
Jared Moskowitz
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
5 Jun2026
David Taylor
Republican
buy
1K–15K
27 May2026
Dave McCormick
Republican
buy
100K–250K
27 May2026
Jerry Moran
Republican
sell
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$49.10
-9.8%
$0.35
$909
-9.1%
2 months
$46.95
-5.7%
$0.35
$950
-5.0%
3 months
$44.98
-1.6%
$0.35
$992
-0.8%
6 months
$59.36
-25.4%
$0.70
$758
-24.2%
1 year
$45.62
-3.0%
$1.40
$1,001
+0.1%
2 years
$38.50
+15.0%
$2.80
$1,222
+22.2%
3 years
$27.36
+61.8%
$4.20
$1,771
+77.1%
5 years
$37.68
+17.5%
$6.60
$1,350
+35.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever CG does next, these words stay.
Carlyle Group Inc · CG · Markup · $46.47
Recorded 2026-07-29 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
