Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
TPG Inc holds its Markup at $48.91. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$48.91
Valuation
73.00 trailing · 13.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.45
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Asset Management
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Asset Management
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 19.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +28% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Asset Manager Trips Ethical Screen at Low Price
Picture a fund manager taking a cut of every deal while markets swing. TPG sits in that seat as an alternative asset manager, yet it fails our ethical screen on the excluded industry. That alone ends the conversation before any numbers matter.
The stock trades at 12.1 times forward earnings with a 28 percent gap to stated fair value, yet revenue has fallen 57 percent and profit margins sit at just 4 percent. Return on equity of 11 percent and a narrow moat offer little cushion against fee pressure and market cycles. Analysts may cluster around a buy rating near 58 dollars, but the business shows none of the durable growth that would normally offset the ethical block.
High cyclical exposure in asset management means low multiples often mark peak earnings rather than bargains. Currency moves, redemption waves and regulatory shifts add further volatility that the narrow moat cannot contain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TPG trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-15Markup · changed$47.91+11.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 11.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-18Markdown$43.01+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-03Markdown$43.01+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$43.01Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
