NAS10030,808+1.00%S&P7,723+0.73%GOLD$4,168+0.14%BTC$86,421+1.96%VIX15.31−6.59%live tape · as of 03:09 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Asset Management
Ares Capital Corp
ARCC · NASDAQ · USD · Market cap $13.7B
Ares Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in growth capital, acquisition, recapitalization, mezzanine debt, restructurings, rescue financing, and leveraged buyout transactions of middle mark…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
19.13 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-28 · not a live quote Last reviewed 7 days ago
Screened 2026-09-28 · the tape above runs as of 03:09 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 19.13 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 23.00, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price19.13 USD
Fair value23.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-21Read Markdown19.66-2.7% to today ✓
2026-08-21Read Markup19.62-2.5% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown19.26-0.7% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ares Capital Corp holds its Markdown at $19.13. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 10 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-28
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 10 days
Price at the screen
$19.13
Valuation
14.28 trailing · 9.89 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.63
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Asset Management
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Asset Management
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Ares Capital does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 20.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Private credit name fails ethics outright
Picture a middle-market loan getting packaged and passed along to pension funds and insurers. Ares Capital sits at the centre of that flow, yet our screen rules out the entire asset-management sector on principle. The numbers look steady on the surface, yet none of that changes the hard stop.
Revenue edges ahead at just 4 percent, margins sit at 37 percent and return on equity is a modest 8 percent. A narrow moat and a forward multiple of 10 times offer little extra comfort when the industry itself is excluded. Consensus targets sit above the current price, but that carries no weight here.
The real exposure lies in credit cycles that can turn quickly and compress lending spreads. Low growth and thin returns on equity already hint at limited upside even before any downturn arrives. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ARCC trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$19.13-2.7%Entry 8
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-09-21Markdown · changed$19.66+0.2%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-08-21Markup · changed$19.62+2.3%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-21Markdown$19.17-0.5%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-18Markdown$19.26+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-17Markdown$19.26+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-03Markdown$19.26+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$19.26Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
