Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. holds its Markup at $23.60. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 262 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 262 days
Price at the screen
$23.60
Valuation
15.84 trailing · 22.91 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.32
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: banks
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $18.52 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 28.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 21.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus None. The average target sits −9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mitsubishi UFJ - Banking Giant in Ethical Quandary
Imagine the sprawling network of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, a titan in the banking world with tentacles reaching from Japan to the US and beyond. But ethics are the moat we use to protect our investment kingdom, and that’s where MUFG stumbles. Its business activities are a bridge too far for our ethical standards.
Why it stands out is a bitter pill to swallow because, numbers-wise, it ticks many boxes - a compelling 29% revenue growth and a robust 27% profit margin. Yet, on an ethical front, it fails, and that's not a risk we're willing to take. Our fair value of $18.52 presents a 14% margin of safety over its current price, but that's overshadowed by the ethical red flag.
Risk sits in the form of ethical compromise, a WEAK moat, and the consensus buy from a mere two analysts, whose median target price aligns with market optimism but not with our ethical-first approach. MUFG may be a heavyweight in finance, but it's a pass from our desk for the values it fails to uphold. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MUFG trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Japan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Markup$21.56-5.8%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-08-04Markup$22.89+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup$22.89+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Markup$22.89+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup$22.89+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Markup$22.89+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup · changed$22.89+0.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Accumulation$22.89+13.5%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 13.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Accumulation$20.16+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-07-03Accumulation$20.16+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
