Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.51, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price48.48 USD
Fair value56.11
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 2 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Markdown47.78+1.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown with results news in the headlines
2026-10-02Read Distribution49.67-2.4% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 7% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-29Read Accumulation53.20-8.9% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 9% rise in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup48.97-1.0% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
UBS Group AG holds its Accumulation at $48.48. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-02
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$48.48
Valuation
15.88 trailing · 11.79 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Banks - Diversified
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Banks - Diversified
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
UBS does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-02. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 2 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 15% discount to our $56.11 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 5.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 13.6% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $56.11, with a range of $45.92 to $76.53, dated to the 2026-11-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it stands out
A 6%-growth business trading at just 11.8x forward earnings, with a narrow competitive moat. That is a 15% discount to our $56.11 fair value: the market is pricing it cautiously while the fundamentals argue otherwise. 3 analysts rate it Buy with a $51.00 average target, about 5% above the screened price.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Switzerland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UBS trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Switzerland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markdown · changed$47.78+0.0%Entry 15
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-10-21Distribution$47.78-0.7%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-10-14Distribution$48.13-3.1%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-28Markup$51.74+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$51.74+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$51.74+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$51.74-1.9%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$52.73+0.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
