NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 17:00 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Banks - Diversified
UBS Group AG
UBS · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $168.6B · 101,594 employees
UBS Group AG operates as a wealth manager and bank worldwide.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
55.07 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
UBS Group AG holds its Markdown at $55.07. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 25 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 25 days
Price at the screen
$55.07
Valuation
18.73 trailing · 13.51 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.83
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Banks - Diversified
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Banks - Diversified
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −5% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Swiss Banking Giant Fails Ethical Test
UBS Group AG, a name that resonates in the global banking sector, operates as a wealth manager and bank with a presence worldwide. Its services span from Global Wealth Management to Investment Banking, creating an extensive network. Despite the business's international reach and robust revenue growth of 15%, UBS stands out for the wrong reasons in our books.
The reason we're steering clear is twofold. First, UBS fails our ethical screen, primarily due to its involvement in an excluded industry - Banks - Diversified. This is a critical criterion that takes precedence over its financial performance. Second, while the stock's price of $53.20 presents a margin of safety of +7% compared to our fair value estimate of $56.81, the ethical considerations are paramount in our investment decisions.
Risks are inherent in any investment, but UBS adds an extra layer with its narrow moat and the ethical red flag. The market consensus rating is non-existent, and with a median target price of $52, it suggests a lukewarm outlook. The ethical failings cast a shadow over the bank's financials, which include a profit margin of 18% and a return on equity of 11%. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell; it's an analysis of the situation.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Switzerland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UBS trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Switzerland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-28Markup$51.74+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$51.74+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$51.74+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$51.74-1.9%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$52.73+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$52.73+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markup$52.73+7.7%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$48.97+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-03Markup$48.97+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
