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The Screen · Financials · Banks - Diversified
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc ADR
SMFG · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $169.6B
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides banking, leasing, securities, consumer finance, and other services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
26.79 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc ADR holds its Accumulation at $26.79. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$26.79
Valuation
15.95 trailing · 65.34 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.39
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Banks - Diversified
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Banks - Diversified
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 34.7% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Sumitomo Mitsui, an Ethical and Value Misalignment
With operations spanning across continents, the group offers a broad range of services, from banking to consumer finance. Priced at $24.54, our fair value assessment lands at only $17.51, suggesting a significant overvaluation—a 29% margin of safety in the opposite direction.
The forward P/E ratio of 59.9x, coupled with a 9% ROE and a narrow moat, raises eyebrows about the sustainability of their returns. The ethical screen is a clear FAIL, as they operate in an excluded industry, Banks - Diversified. While their revenue growth is robust at 25%, profit margin at 28% is commendable but not exceptional enough to justify the high P/E. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SMFG trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Japan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-31Markup$24.54-6.3%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-31Markup$26.18+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup · changed$26.18+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Accumulation$26.18+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Accumulation$26.18+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Accumulation$26.18+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Accumulation$26.18+4.9%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Accumulation$24.95+2.3%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Accumulation$24.40+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-03Accumulation$24.40+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.